Faculty of Urban and Regional Development

Publications

• Book

  Sokolov A., Shashnov S. A., Kotsemir M. N. et al.

  The Innovation Competitiveness of BRICS countries

  The book is devoted to the assessment of innovation competitiveness of BRICS countries. It covers different aspects of science, technology and innovation in BRICS including status of STI in each country, the intra-BRICS collaboration in the field of STI, prospects of collaboration with BRICS+ countries, as well as a special chapter covering innovation development of BRICS in ICT.  The book presents chapters authored by leading experts in STI policy and analysis from BRICS countries. The key questions addressed in the book cover peculiarities of national innovation systems of BRICS countries, their science, technology and innovation policies.

  Springer, 2025.

• Article

  Niyazov S., Maibakh O., Сухарев А. А. et al.

  Evaluating Delphi survey accuracy in transportation: Evidence from Japanese technology foresight

  This research evaluates the accuracy of Delphi surveys in technology foresight with a focus on the transportation sector by determining the realization status of topics forecasted in the three Science and Technology Forecast Surveys administered by Japan's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in 1992, 1997, and 2001. The analysis included 167 topics, representing 647 observations when different Delphi rounds, survey iterations, and respondent pools are taken into account. Through expert verification, an overall forecasting accuracy rate of 25 % was found.

  The results highlight a “forecastability pit”: topics in early and late technological stages demonstrate higher accuracy compared to middle stages, when technologies first enter practical use or are improved. Accuracy was lowest for “aviation” (11 %), “railway” (19 %), and “road” (25 %) sectors and highest for “marine” (31 %) and “other new transportation sectors” (36 %). Greater accuracy was not found to be correlated with higher levels of self-rated expertise, second-round Delphi forecasts, a topic's perceived importance and anticipated magnitude of effects.

  The low accuracy rate may stem from the regulatory and technological complexities inherent to the sector. Overall, the study underscores the need for methodological refinements and a reassessment of the role of expert judgment processes in S&T Delphi.

  Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2026. No. 224.

• Book chapter

  Prokhorov A., Kiselev G.

  POPULATION AND WORKPLACES ESTIMATION USING MACHINE LEARNING AND OPEN DATA SOURCES

  We study the problem of estimating the population and workplaces in a given area us-
  ing open data sources and machine learning algorithms for automation and improve-
  ment of quality and accuracy of the transport demand calculation in transport modeling.
  Bibliography: 6 titles. Illustrations: 7 figures.

  
  
  
  

  In bk.: Journal of Mathematical Sciences. Vol. 295, No. 2, December, 2025. Mathematical Modeling and AI for Traffic Flows on Networks and Related Topics. Vol. 295. Iss. 2. Springer, 2025. P. 185-196.

• Working paper

  Muleev Y. Y.

  EXPLORING ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN PARKING OCCUPANCY RATE AT RESIDENTIAL ESTATES AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CASE OF YEKATERINBURG

  Financial losses due to low demand for parking spaces in garages at residential estates is a key motivation for this research. The purpose of this paper in particular is to statistically explore the relationship between parking occupancy rates and various factors on transport supply, characteristics of location and the building. The occupancy rate of parking was measured as the ratio of actual number of cars to total number of parking spaces. The fieldwork on counting occupied parking spaces was conducted 2 times per day during a week on a sample of 13 locations in different areas of a 1.4-million Yekaterinburg city in Russia. 4700 observed parking spaces give sample size of 173 records. Statistical analysis shows that the crow-fly distance to the city center as well as the number of public transport stops are strongly associated with occupancy rate for parking. Also, occupancy rate is much more affected by the type of parking ownership. Private owning means purchase of a parking space or renting it while public ownership suggests free access. So private parking means a 45% decline in occupancy compared to the public parking regime. Research provides empirical results and some theoretical underpinnings are also highlighted.

  Urban and Transportation Studies. URB. НИУ ВШЭ, 2020. No. 9.